The Spread

Was the forecast right for Tampa on Fri Aug 28?

Tampa, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the TPA observations

3 days out, 7 models put Tampa's Fri Aug 28 high anywhere from 29° to 35°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 32°. The day verified at 32° against the TPA observations, with 46.5 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.

UKMO landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 3° hot.

3 days out the models said 29–35; it hit 32. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 3°C hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Tampa scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
3d · 2026-08-25 29° 33° 29° 34° 35° 32° 30° 29–35°
2d · 2026-08-26 30° 33° 30° 33° 35° 31° 34° 30–35°
1d · 2026-08-27 30° 33° 31° 33° 35° 32° 32° 30–35°
0d · 2026-08-28 31° 32° 31° 34° 35° 33° 32° 31–35°
actual 32°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Tampa — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the TPA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.