The Spread

Was the forecast right for Seattle on Wed Aug 26?

Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SEA observations

3 days out, 7 models put Seattle's Wed Aug 26 high anywhere from 23° to 28°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 26°. The day verified at 25° against the SEA observations — cloudy.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.3°. GFS ran 3° hot.

3 days out the models said 23–28; it hit 25. GEM led (off 0.3°C); GFS ran 3°C hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
3d · 2026-08-23 23° 25° 26° 24° 28° 24° 24° 23–28°
2d · 2026-08-24 23° 26° 26° 24° 28° 24° 26° 23–28°
1d · 2026-08-25 23° 26° 25° 25° 29° 24° 25° 23–29°
0d · 2026-08-26 23° 26° 26° 25° 28° 23° 26° 23–28°
actual 25°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SEA observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.