Was the forecast right for Seattle on Sat Aug 1?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
14 days out, 4 models put Seattle's Sat Aug 1 high anywhere from 71° to 83°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 71°. ERA5 says the day verified at 73° with 0.04 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.7°. AIFS ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-17 | — | 74° | — | — | 85° | — | — | 74–85° |
| 14d · 2026-07-18 | 71° | 81° | 72° | — | 83° | — | — | 71–83° |
| 13d · 2026-07-19 | 72° | 76° | 81° | — | 76° | — | — | 72–81° |
| 12d · 2026-07-20 | 68° | 81° | 76° | — | 83° | — | — | 68–83° |
| 11d · 2026-07-21 | 77° | 74° | 73° | — | 75° | — | — | 73–77° |
| 10d · 2026-07-22 | 76° | 68° | 79° | — | 77° | — | — | 68–79° |
| 9d · 2026-07-23 | 74° | 74° | 80° | 72° | 78° | — | — | 72–80° |
| 8d · 2026-07-24 | 69° | 73° | 77° | 71° | 83° | — | — | 69–83° |
| 7d · 2026-07-25 | 67° | 74° | 72° | 69° | 71° | — | — | 67–74° |
| 6d · 2026-07-26 | 68° | 71° | 72° | 72° | 73° | 71° | 75° | 68–75° |
| 5d · 2026-07-27 | 68° | 71° | 74° | 70° | 77° | 73° | 74° | 68–77° |
| 4d · 2026-07-28 | 68° | 72° | 71° | 71° | 76° | 70° | 70° | 68–76° |
| 3d · 2026-07-29 | 70° | 71° | 72° | 70° | 72° | 72° | 68° | 68–72° |
| 2d · 2026-07-30 | 70° | 71° | 71° | 70° | 77° | 72° | 70° | 70–77° |
| 1d · 2026-07-31 | 69° | 71° | 72° | 72° | 68° | 72° | 71° | 68–72° |
| 0d · 2026-08-01 | 70° | 71° | 72° | 74° | 71° | 71° | 73° | 70–74° |
| actual | 73° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.