The Spread

Was the forecast right for Seattle on Mon Jul 27?

Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5

10 days out, 4 models put Seattle's Mon Jul 27 high anywhere from 66° to 80°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 78°. ERA5 says the day verified at 78° — cloudy.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.0°. AIFS ran 3° cold.

10 days out the models said 66–80; it hit 78. GEM led (off 0.0°); AIFS ran 3° cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Jul 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
10d · 2026-07-17 72° 74° 66° — 80° — — 66–80°
9d · 2026-07-18 75° 71° 77° 76° 81° — — 71–81°
8d · 2026-07-19 64° 72° 79° 71° 79° — — 64–79°
7d · 2026-07-20 71° 76° 74° 70° 85° — — 70–85°
6d · 2026-07-21 71° 76° 68° 67° 84° 67° 78° 67–84°
5d · 2026-07-22 73° 76° 75° 72° 82° 64° 74° 64–82°
4d · 2026-07-23 73° 76° 77° 76° 85° 76° 75° 73–85°
3d · 2026-07-24 74° 77° 75° 74° 82° 74° 77° 74–82°
2d · 2026-07-25 74° 78° 76° 73° 82° 72° 77° 72–82°
1d · 2026-07-26 75° 77° 76° 78° 76° 77° 77° 75–78°
0d · 2026-07-27 75° 81° 78° 78° 76° 77° 78° 75–81°
actual 78°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.