Was the forecast right for Seattle on Fri Jul 24?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
7 days out, 5 models put Seattle's Fri Jul 24 high anywhere from 75° to 87°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 80°. ERA5 says the day verified at 79° — cloudy.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.6°. AIFS ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Jul 24 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d · 2026-07-17 | 75° | 83° | 84° | 77° | 87° | — | — | 75–87° |
| 6d · 2026-07-18 | 75° | 79° | 80° | 79° | 85° | 77° | 77° | 75–85° |
| 5d · 2026-07-19 | 75° | 80° | 77° | 79° | 80° | 71° | 82° | 71–82° |
| 4d · 2026-07-20 | 76° | 80° | 82° | 78° | 83° | 79° | 80° | 76–83° |
| 3d · 2026-07-21 | 75° | 79° | 81° | 77° | 88° | 78° | 82° | 75–88° |
| 2d · 2026-07-22 | 75° | 80° | 81° | 80° | 89° | 79° | 82° | 75–89° |
| 1d · 2026-07-23 | 75° | 81° | 80° | 83° | 78° | 78° | 82° | 75–83° |
| 0d · 2026-07-24 | 75° | 82° | 80° | 81° | 77° | 78° | 80° | 75–82° |
| actual | 79° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.