Was the forecast right for Seattle on Thu Jul 23?
Seattle, Washington · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
6 days out, 7 models put Seattle's Thu Jul 23 high anywhere from 73° to 90°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 76°. ERA5 says the day verified at 75° with 0.1 in of precipitation — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIFS ran 6° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Jul 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Seattle scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d · 2026-07-17 | 79° | 82° | 86° | 76° | 90° | 82° | 73° | 73–90° |
| 5d · 2026-07-18 | 78° | 81° | 78° | 80° | 86° | 76° | 80° | 76–86° |
| 4d · 2026-07-19 | 77° | 80° | 87° | 76° | 92° | 78° | 85° | 76–92° |
| 3d · 2026-07-20 | 74° | 82° | 80° | 77° | 95° | 77° | 81° | 74–95° |
| 2d · 2026-07-21 | 72° | 76° | 78° | 77° | 80° | 76° | 80° | 72–80° |
| 1d · 2026-07-22 | 71° | 76° | 80° | 80° | 74° | 74° | 77° | 71–80° |
| 0d · 2026-07-23 | 69° | 77° | 75° | 79° | 76° | 73° | 78° | 69–79° |
| actual | 75° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Seattle — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.