Was the forecast right for San Antonio on Fri Aug 28?
San Antonio, Texas · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAT observations
3 days out, 7 models put San Antonio's Fri Aug 28 high anywhere from 97° to 105°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 97°. The day verified at 100° against the SAT observations, with 1.69 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 1.7°. AIFS ran 6° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Antonio scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 3d · 2026-08-25 | 98° | 101° | 100° | 97° | 105° | 99° | 100° | 97–105° |
| 2d · 2026-08-26 | 97° | 97° | 96° | 93° | 101° | 96° | 95° | 93–101° |
| 1d · 2026-08-27 | 93° | 96° | 98° | 97° | 102° | 100° | 102° | 93–102° |
| 0d · 2026-08-28 | 94° | 95° | 98° | 95° | 97° | 97° | 97° | 94–98° |
| actual | 100° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Antonio — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.