Was the forecast right for San Antonio on Fri Aug 28?

San Antonio, Texas · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SAT observations

3 days out, 7 models put San Antonio's Fri Aug 28 high anywhere from 36° to 40°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 36°. The day verified at 38° against the SAT observations, with 42.9 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.9°. AIFS ran 3° cold.

3 days out the models said 36–40; it hit 38. ECMWF led (off 0.9°C); AIFS ran 3°C cold. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the San Antonio scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
3d · 2026-08-25	37°	38°	38°	36°	40°	37°	38°	36–40°
2d · 2026-08-26	36°	36°	36°	34°	38°	35°	35°	34–38°
1d · 2026-08-27	34°	35°	37°	36°	39°	38°	39°	34–39°
0d · 2026-08-28	34°	35°	37°	35°	36°	36°	36°	34–37°
actual								38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in San Antonio — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SAT observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.