The Spread

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Sun Aug 23?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations

3 days out, 7 models put Salt Lake City's Sun Aug 23 high anywhere from 92° to 96°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 93°. The day verified at 94° against the SLC observations, with 0.03 in of precipitation — drizzle.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 6° cold.

3 days out the models said 92–96; it hit 94. ICON led (off 0.1°F); AIFS ran 6°F cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
3d · 2026-08-20 92° 92° 92° 93° 94° 96° 93° 92–96°
2d · 2026-08-21 91° 92° 92° 93° 93° 95° 91° 91–95°
1d · 2026-08-22 92° 91° 91° 93° 92° 96° 93° 91–96°
0d · 2026-08-23 88° 93° 91° 95° 93° 94° 92° 88–95°
actual 94°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.