Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Sun Aug 23?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the SLC observations

3 days out, 7 models put Salt Lake City's Sun Aug 23 high anywhere from 33° to 36°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 34°. The day verified at 34° against the SLC observations, with 0.8 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 3° cold.

3 days out the models said 33–36; it hit 34. ICON led (off 0.1°C); AIFS ran 3°C cold. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 23 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
3d · 2026-08-20	34°	33°	33°	34°	34°	36°	34°	33–36°
2d · 2026-08-21	33°	33°	33°	34°	34°	35°	33°	33–35°
1d · 2026-08-22	34°	33°	33°	34°	33°	36°	34°	33–36°
0d · 2026-08-23	31°	34°	33°	35°	34°	34°	34°	31–35°
actual								34°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the SLC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.