Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Mon Aug 17?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Mon Aug 17 high anywhere from 75° to 97°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 94°. The ECMWF IFS analysis says the day verified at 96° — partly cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.0°. UKMO ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-02 | — | 82° | — | — | 100° | — | — | 82–100° |
| 14d · 2026-08-03 | 75° | 80° | 95° | — | 97° | — | — | 75–97° |
| 13d · 2026-08-04 | 77° | 84° | 96° | — | 100° | — | — | 77–100° |
| 12d · 2026-08-05 | 85° | 80° | 90° | — | 98° | — | — | 80–98° |
| 11d · 2026-08-06 | 77° | 76° | 94° | — | 96° | — | — | 76–96° |
| 10d · 2026-08-07 | 83° | 76° | 91° | — | 89° | — | — | 76–91° |
| 9d · 2026-08-08 | 80° | 76° | 82° | 88° | 97° | — | — | 76–97° |
| 8d · 2026-08-09 | 88° | 85° | 90° | 91° | 87° | — | — | 85–91° |
| 7d · 2026-08-10 | 89° | 92° | 92° | 92° | 93° | — | — | 89–93° |
| 6d · 2026-08-11 | 90° | 93° | 94° | 92° | 94° | 92° | 92° | 90–94° |
| 5d · 2026-08-12 | 92° | 92° | 92° | 92° | 96° | 89° | 90° | 89–96° |
| 4d · 2026-08-13 | 91° | 91° | 91° | 92° | 95° | 92° | 88° | 88–95° |
| 3d · 2026-08-14 | 91° | 92° | 90° | 94° | 95° | 92° | 90° | 90–95° |
| 2d · 2026-08-15 | 92° | 92° | 90° | 94° | 97° | 94° | 88° | 88–97° |
| 1d · 2026-08-16 | 93° | 93° | 93° | 94° | 96° | 93° | 91° | 91–96° |
| 0d · 2026-08-17 | 93° | 94° | 93° | 96° | 97° | 94° | 92° | 92–97° |
| actual | 96° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.