The Spread

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Mon Aug 17?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Mon Aug 17 high anywhere from 24° to 36°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 34°. The ECMWF IFS analysis says the day verified at 35° — partly cloudy.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.0°. UKMO ran 2° cold.

14 days out the models said 24–36; it hit 35. GEM led (off 0.0°C); UKMO ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 17 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-08-02 — 28° — — 38° — — 28–38°
14d · 2026-08-03 24° 27° 35° — 36° — — 24–36°
13d · 2026-08-04 25° 29° 35° — 38° — — 25–38°
12d · 2026-08-05 29° 27° 32° — 37° — — 27–37°
11d · 2026-08-06 25° 24° 35° — 36° — — 24–36°
10d · 2026-08-07 28° 24° 33° — 32° — — 24–33°
9d · 2026-08-08 27° 25° 28° 31° 36° — — 25–36°
8d · 2026-08-09 31° 30° 32° 33° 30° — — 30–33°
7d · 2026-08-10 32° 34° 33° 33° 34° — — 32–34°
6d · 2026-08-11 32° 34° 34° 34° 34° 33° 33° 32–34°
5d · 2026-08-12 33° 33° 33° 34° 36° 32° 32° 32–36°
4d · 2026-08-13 33° 33° 33° 33° 35° 33° 31° 31–35°
3d · 2026-08-14 33° 33° 32° 34° 35° 33° 32° 32–35°
2d · 2026-08-15 33° 34° 32° 34° 36° 34° 31° 31–36°
1d · 2026-08-16 34° 34° 34° 34° 36° 34° 33° 33–36°
0d · 2026-08-17 34° 34° 34° 35° 36° 34° 33° 33–36°
actual 35°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.