Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Sun Aug 9?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Sun Aug 9 high anywhere from 93° to 100°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 98°. ERA5 says the day verified at 100° with 0.02 in of precipitation — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.5°. AIFS ran 7° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-25 | — | 90° | — | — | 102° | — | — | 90–102° |
| 14d · 2026-07-26 | 96° | 93° | 100° | — | 99° | — | — | 93–100° |
| 13d · 2026-07-27 | 94° | 92° | 94° | — | 95° | — | — | 92–95° |
| 12d · 2026-07-28 | 92° | 94° | 100° | — | 104° | — | — | 92–104° |
| 11d · 2026-07-29 | 99° | 95° | 102° | — | 100° | — | — | 95–102° |
| 10d · 2026-07-30 | 94° | 91° | 101° | — | 83° | — | — | 83–101° |
| 9d · 2026-07-31 | 91° | 94° | 105° | 95° | 99° | — | — | 91–105° |
| 8d · 2026-08-01 | 98° | 97° | 101° | 94° | 105° | — | — | 94–105° |
| 7d · 2026-08-02 | 98° | 98° | 98° | 98° | 102° | — | — | 98–102° |
| 6d · 2026-08-03 | 95° | 99° | 102° | 97° | 102° | 99° | 101° | 95–102° |
| 5d · 2026-08-04 | 96° | 97° | 101° | 95° | 103° | 100° | 101° | 95–103° |
| 4d · 2026-08-05 | 97° | 98° | 102° | 97° | 103° | 100° | 100° | 97–103° |
| 3d · 2026-08-06 | 95° | 97° | 102° | 98° | 102° | 100° | 99° | 95–102° |
| 2d · 2026-08-07 | 95° | 98° | 101° | 97° | 102° | 100° | 98° | 95–102° |
| 1d · 2026-08-08 | 95° | 98° | 98° | 99° | 101° | 100° | 98° | 95–101° |
| 0d · 2026-08-09 | 93° | 98° | 98° | 101° | 101° | 99° | 98° | 93–101° |
| actual | 100° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.