The Spread

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Sun Aug 9?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5

14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Sun Aug 9 high anywhere from 34° to 38°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 37°. ERA5 says the day verified at 38° with 0.5 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIFS ran 4° cold.

14 days out the models said 34–38; it hit 38. GEM led (off 0.3°C); AIFS ran 4°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 9 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-07-25 — 32° — — 39° — — 32–39°
14d · 2026-07-26 36° 34° 38° — 37° — — 34–38°
13d · 2026-07-27 34° 33° 34° — 35° — — 33–35°
12d · 2026-07-28 34° 34° 38° — 40° — — 34–40°
11d · 2026-07-29 37° 35° 39° — 38° — — 35–39°
10d · 2026-07-30 34° 33° 38° — 28° — — 28–38°
9d · 2026-07-31 33° 35° 40° 35° 37° — — 33–40°
8d · 2026-08-01 37° 36° 38° 34° 41° — — 34–41°
7d · 2026-08-02 37° 37° 37° 37° 39° — — 37–39°
6d · 2026-08-03 35° 37° 39° 36° 39° 37° 38° 35–39°
5d · 2026-08-04 35° 36° 38° 35° 40° 38° 38° 35–40°
4d · 2026-08-05 36° 37° 39° 36° 39° 38° 38° 36–39°
3d · 2026-08-06 35° 36° 39° 37° 39° 38° 37° 35–39°
2d · 2026-08-07 35° 36° 38° 36° 39° 38° 37° 35–39°
1d · 2026-08-08 35° 37° 37° 37° 38° 38° 36° 35–38°
0d · 2026-08-09 34° 37° 36° 38° 38° 37° 36° 34–38°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.