Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Sat Aug 8?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Sat Aug 8 high anywhere from 89° to 102°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 99°. ERA5 says the day verified at 103° — drizzle.
GFS landed closest, off by 1.0°. GEM ran 6° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-24 | — | 92° | — | — | 94° | — | — | 92–94° |
| 14d · 2026-07-25 | 96° | 89° | 100° | — | 102° | — | — | 89–102° |
| 13d · 2026-07-26 | 91° | 97° | 97° | — | 100° | — | — | 91–100° |
| 12d · 2026-07-27 | 92° | 92° | 105° | — | 100° | — | — | 92–105° |
| 11d · 2026-07-28 | 99° | 96° | 98° | — | 106° | — | — | 96–106° |
| 10d · 2026-07-29 | 100° | 94° | 101° | — | 101° | — | — | 94–101° |
| 9d · 2026-07-30 | 94° | 96° | 102° | 94° | 95° | — | — | 94–102° |
| 8d · 2026-07-31 | 93° | 98° | 104° | 96° | 100° | — | — | 93–104° |
| 7d · 2026-08-01 | 100° | 99° | 103° | 96° | 103° | — | — | 96–103° |
| 6d · 2026-08-02 | 100° | 100° | 104° | 97° | 104° | 101° | 101° | 97–104° |
| 5d · 2026-08-03 | 98° | 100° | 105° | 97° | 104° | 101° | 104° | 97–105° |
| 4d · 2026-08-04 | 99° | 100° | 104° | 101° | 104° | 101° | 102° | 99–104° |
| 3d · 2026-08-05 | 98° | 100° | 104° | 100° | 104° | 99° | 101° | 98–104° |
| 2d · 2026-08-06 | 98° | 100° | 103° | 100° | 103° | 101° | 100° | 98–103° |
| 1d · 2026-08-07 | 98° | 99° | 102° | 98° | 100° | 100° | 99° | 98–102° |
| 0d · 2026-08-08 | 98° | 100° | 99° | 97° | 102° | 99° | 99° | 97–102° |
| actual | 103° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.