The Spread

Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Sat Aug 8?

Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5

14 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Sat Aug 8 high anywhere from 32° to 39°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 37°. ERA5 says the day verified at 39° — drizzle.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.6°. GEM ran 3° cold.

14 days out the models said 32–39; it hit 39. GFS led (off 0.6°C); GEM ran 3°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 8 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-07-24 — 33° — — 35° — — 33–35°
14d · 2026-07-25 35° 32° 38° — 39° — — 32–39°
13d · 2026-07-26 33° 36° 36° — 38° — — 33–38°
12d · 2026-07-27 34° 33° 41° — 38° — — 33–41°
11d · 2026-07-28 37° 36° 37° — 41° — — 36–41°
10d · 2026-07-29 38° 34° 39° — 38° — — 34–39°
9d · 2026-07-30 35° 36° 39° 34° 35° — — 34–39°
8d · 2026-07-31 34° 36° 40° 35° 38° — — 34–40°
7d · 2026-08-01 38° 37° 39° 36° 39° — — 36–39°
6d · 2026-08-02 38° 38° 40° 36° 40° 39° 38° 36–40°
5d · 2026-08-03 37° 38° 41° 36° 40° 38° 40° 36–41°
4d · 2026-08-04 37° 38° 40° 38° 40° 38° 39° 37–40°
3d · 2026-08-05 37° 38° 40° 38° 40° 37° 39° 37–40°
2d · 2026-08-06 37° 38° 39° 38° 39° 38° 38° 37–39°
1d · 2026-08-07 37° 37° 39° 37° 38° 38° 37° 37–39°
0d · 2026-08-08 37° 38° 37° 36° 39° 37° 37° 36–39°
actual 39°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.