Was the forecast right for Salt Lake City on Mon Jul 27?
Salt Lake City, Utah · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
10 days out, 4 models put Salt Lake City's Mon Jul 27 high anywhere from 92° to 102°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 97°. ERA5 says the day verified at 96° with 0.06 in of precipitation — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Jul 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Salt Lake City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-07-17 | 93° | 94° | 92° | — | 102° | — | — | 92–102° |
| 9d · 2026-07-18 | 96° | 95° | 94° | 99° | 101° | — | — | 94–101° |
| 8d · 2026-07-19 | 98° | 96° | 101° | 98° | 104° | — | — | 96–104° |
| 7d · 2026-07-20 | 98° | 101° | 98° | 100° | 103° | — | — | 98–103° |
| 6d · 2026-07-21 | 100° | 100° | 104° | 98° | 102° | 99° | 97° | 97–104° |
| 5d · 2026-07-22 | 97° | 100° | 104° | 96° | 101° | 102° | 93° | 93–104° |
| 4d · 2026-07-23 | 95° | 99° | 103° | 97° | 103° | 100° | 99° | 95–103° |
| 3d · 2026-07-24 | 95° | 98° | 103° | 99° | 102° | 97° | 101° | 95–103° |
| 2d · 2026-07-25 | 94° | 98° | 100° | 101° | 101° | 100° | 98° | 94–101° |
| 1d · 2026-07-26 | 94° | 95° | 99° | 100° | 101° | 98° | 98° | 94–101° |
| 0d · 2026-07-27 | 92° | 98° | 94° | 100° | 99° | 97° | 96° | 92–100° |
| actual | 96° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Salt Lake City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.