Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Fri Aug 14?
Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
13 days out, 4 models put Phoenix's Fri Aug 14 high anywhere from 97° to 106°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 98°. The ECMWF IFS analysis says the day verified at 100° — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.3°. UKMO ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-30 | — | 104° | — | — | 110° | — | — | 104–110° |
| 14d · 2026-07-31 | 105° | 103° | — | — | 96° | — | — | 96–105° |
| 13d · 2026-08-01 | 98° | 97° | 100° | — | 106° | — | — | 97–106° |
| 12d · 2026-08-02 | 93° | 95° | 108° | — | 105° | — | — | 93–108° |
| 11d · 2026-08-03 | 90° | 98° | 102° | — | 110° | — | — | 90–110° |
| 10d · 2026-08-04 | 100° | 102° | 98° | — | 106° | — | — | 98–106° |
| 9d · 2026-08-05 | 99° | 101° | 92° | — | 106° | — | — | 92–106° |
| 8d · 2026-08-06 | 98° | 100° | 106° | 104° | 103° | — | — | 98–106° |
| 7d · 2026-08-07 | 99° | 102° | 106° | 105° | 104° | — | — | 99–106° |
| 6d · 2026-08-08 | 103° | 102° | 100° | 102° | 103° | 99° | — | 99–103° |
| 5d · 2026-08-09 | 103° | 102° | 104° | 100° | 98° | 100° | 99° | 98–104° |
| 4d · 2026-08-10 | 98° | 101° | 102° | 99° | 101° | 99° | 103° | 98–103° |
| 3d · 2026-08-11 | 99° | 100° | 96° | 99° | 100° | 98° | 99° | 96–100° |
| 2d · 2026-08-12 | 98° | 100° | 98° | 98° | 102° | 100° | 100° | 98–102° |
| 1d · 2026-08-13 | 97° | 99° | 98° | 99° | 102° | 98° | 96° | 96–102° |
| 0d · 2026-08-14 | 99° | 98° | 100° | 98° | 102° | 97° | 97° | 97–102° |
| actual | 100° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.