The Spread

Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Fri Aug 14?

Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

13 days out, 4 models put Phoenix's Fri Aug 14 high anywhere from 36° to 41°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 37°. The ECMWF IFS analysis says the day verified at 38° — cloudy.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. UKMO ran 2° cold.

13 days out the models said 36–41; it hit 38. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); UKMO ran 2°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-07-30 — 40° — — 43° — — 40–43°
14d · 2026-07-31 40° 39° — — 35° — — 35–40°
13d · 2026-08-01 36° 36° 38° — 41° — — 36–41°
12d · 2026-08-02 34° 35° 42° — 40° — — 34–42°
11d · 2026-08-03 32° 37° 39° — 43° — — 32–43°
10d · 2026-08-04 38° 39° 37° — 41° — — 37–41°
9d · 2026-08-05 37° 38° 33° — 41° — — 33–41°
8d · 2026-08-06 36° 38° 41° 40° 39° — — 36–41°
7d · 2026-08-07 37° 39° 41° 40° 40° — — 37–41°
6d · 2026-08-08 39° 39° 38° 39° 40° 37° — 37–40°
5d · 2026-08-09 40° 39° 40° 38° 37° 38° 37° 37–40°
4d · 2026-08-10 36° 38° 39° 37° 38° 37° 40° 36–40°
3d · 2026-08-11 37° 38° 35° 37° 38° 37° 37° 35–38°
2d · 2026-08-12 36° 38° 36° 37° 39° 38° 38° 36–39°
1d · 2026-08-13 36° 37° 36° 37° 39° 37° 36° 36–39°
0d · 2026-08-14 37° 37° 38° 37° 39° 36° 36° 36–39°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.