Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Wed Aug 12?
Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
13 days out, 4 models put Phoenix's Wed Aug 12 high anywhere from 96° to 107°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 100°. ERA5 says the day verified at 95° with 0.59 in of precipitation — rain.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.9°. ECMWF ran 9° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-28 | — | 102° | — | — | 104° | — | — | 102–104° |
| 14d · 2026-07-29 | 92° | 100° | — | — | 104° | — | — | 92–104° |
| 13d · 2026-07-30 | 96° | 101° | 100° | — | 107° | — | — | 96–107° |
| 12d · 2026-07-31 | 105° | 98° | 101° | — | 100° | — | — | 98–105° |
| 11d · 2026-08-01 | 91° | 98° | 93° | — | 105° | — | — | 91–105° |
| 10d · 2026-08-02 | 102° | 104° | 101° | — | 101° | — | — | 101–104° |
| 9d · 2026-08-03 | 101° | 106° | 93° | — | 104° | — | — | 93–106° |
| 8d · 2026-08-04 | 98° | 101° | 103° | 105° | 106° | — | — | 98–106° |
| 7d · 2026-08-05 | 98° | 102° | 98° | 107° | 104° | — | — | 98–107° |
| 6d · 2026-08-06 | 94° | 101° | 105° | 105° | 104° | 94° | — | 94–105° |
| 5d · 2026-08-07 | 92° | 96° | 101° | 105° | 103° | 94° | 99° | 92–105° |
| 4d · 2026-08-08 | 93° | 98° | 102° | 90° | 101° | 89° | 93° | 89–102° |
| 3d · 2026-08-09 | 96° | 95° | 104° | 90° | 96° | 93° | 100° | 90–104° |
| 2d · 2026-08-10 | 93° | 96° | 102° | 94° | 102° | 93° | 93° | 93–102° |
| 1d · 2026-08-11 | 94° | 91° | 104° | 91° | 102° | 89° | 93° | 89–104° |
| 0d · 2026-08-12 | 94° | 100° | 104° | 101° | 102° | 100° | 100° | 94–104° |
| actual | 95° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.