Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Wed Aug 12?
Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
13 days out, 4 models put Phoenix's Wed Aug 12 high anywhere from 36° to 41°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 38°. ERA5 says the day verified at 35° with 15.0 mm of precipitation — rain.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.5°. ECMWF ran 5° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 12 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-28 | — | 39° | — | — | 40° | — | — | 39–40° |
| 14d · 2026-07-29 | 33° | 38° | — | — | 40° | — | — | 33–40° |
| 13d · 2026-07-30 | 36° | 38° | 38° | — | 41° | — | — | 36–41° |
| 12d · 2026-07-31 | 41° | 36° | 38° | — | 38° | — | — | 36–41° |
| 11d · 2026-08-01 | 33° | 37° | 34° | — | 41° | — | — | 33–41° |
| 10d · 2026-08-02 | 39° | 40° | 38° | — | 38° | — | — | 38–40° |
| 9d · 2026-08-03 | 38° | 41° | 34° | — | 40° | — | — | 34–41° |
| 8d · 2026-08-04 | 37° | 38° | 40° | 40° | 41° | — | — | 37–41° |
| 7d · 2026-08-05 | 37° | 39° | 37° | 42° | 40° | — | — | 37–42° |
| 6d · 2026-08-06 | 34° | 38° | 40° | 40° | 40° | 34° | — | 34–40° |
| 5d · 2026-08-07 | 34° | 36° | 38° | 40° | 39° | 34° | 37° | 34–40° |
| 4d · 2026-08-08 | 34° | 37° | 39° | 32° | 38° | 32° | 34° | 32–39° |
| 3d · 2026-08-09 | 35° | 35° | 40° | 32° | 36° | 34° | 38° | 32–40° |
| 2d · 2026-08-10 | 34° | 35° | 39° | 34° | 39° | 34° | 34° | 34–39° |
| 1d · 2026-08-11 | 34° | 33° | 40° | 33° | 39° | 32° | 34° | 32–40° |
| 0d · 2026-08-12 | 34° | 38° | 40° | 38° | 39° | 38° | 38° | 34–40° |
| actual | 35° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.