Was the forecast right for Phoenix on Thu Jul 30?

Phoenix, Arizona · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5

3 days out, 7 models put Phoenix's Thu Jul 30 high anywhere from 111° to 114°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 112°. ERA5 says the day verified at 113° — cloudy.

AIFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIGFS ran 2° cold.

3 days out the models said 111–114; it hit 113. AIFS led (off 0.1°); AIGFS ran 2° cold. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Thu Jul 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Phoenix scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
3d · 2026-07-27	112°	112°	114°	113°	111°	112°	114°	111–114°
2d · 2026-07-28	112°	110°	115°	111°	111°	112°	113°	110–115°
1d · 2026-07-29	113°	110°	114°	112°	113°	112°	111°	110–114°
0d · 2026-07-30	112°	110°	113°	112°	114°	112°	112°	110–114°
actual								113°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Phoenix — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.