Was the forecast right for Orlando on Sun Aug 30?
Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ORL observations
11 days out, 4 models put Orlando's Sun Aug 30 high anywhere from 89° to 98°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 90°. The day verified at 92° against the ORL observations, with 0.05 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.3°. UKMO ran 6° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sun Aug 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d · 2026-08-19 | 89° | 91° | 89° | — | 98° | — | — | 89–98° |
| 10d · 2026-08-20 | 89° | 92° | 92° | — | 97° | — | — | 89–97° |
| 9d · 2026-08-21 | 87° | 91° | 91° | 92° | 99° | — | — | 87–99° |
| 8d · 2026-08-22 | 89° | 90° | 89° | 93° | 98° | — | — | 89–98° |
| 7d · 2026-08-23 | 88° | 90° | 79° | 96° | 97° | — | — | 79–97° |
| 6d · 2026-08-24 | 88° | 90° | 82° | 93° | 93° | 90° | 88° | 82–93° |
| 5d · 2026-08-25 | 88° | 92° | 89° | 95° | 94° | 91° | 90° | 88–95° |
| 4d · 2026-08-26 | 87° | 92° | 88° | 90° | 93° | 88° | 85° | 85–93° |
| 3d · 2026-08-27 | 88° | 91° | 84° | 90° | 93° | 91° | 86° | 84–93° |
| 2d · 2026-08-28 | 86° | 90° | 86° | 93° | 97° | 90° | 86° | 86–97° |
| 1d · 2026-08-29 | 86° | 92° | 85° | 89° | 98° | 90° | 88° | 85–98° |
| 0d · 2026-08-30 | 90° | 91° | 88° | 92° | 95° | 90° | 86° | 86–95° |
| actual | 92° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ORL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.