The Spread

Was the forecast right for Orlando on Fri Aug 28?

Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ORL observations

9 days out, 5 models put Orlando's Fri Aug 28 high anywhere from 89° to 98°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 92°. The day verified at 92° against the ORL observations, with 0.35 in of precipitation — drizzle.

ICON landed closest, off by 0.3°. GFS ran 5° hot.

9 days out the models said 89–98; it hit 92. ICON led (off 0.3°F); GFS ran 5°F hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
9d · 2026-08-19 89° 93° 89° 93° 98° — — 89–98°
8d · 2026-08-20 90° 92° 92° 90° 97° — — 90–97°
7d · 2026-08-21 90° 92° 92° 93° 99° — — 90–99°
6d · 2026-08-22 90° 93° 92° 96° 96° 93° 91° 90–96°
5d · 2026-08-23 89° 93° 91° 96° 96° 92° 90° 89–96°
4d · 2026-08-24 89° 92° 90° 95° 98° 89° 93° 89–98°
3d · 2026-08-25 88° 92° 90° 91° 98° 90° 86° 86–98°
2d · 2026-08-26 89° 92° 89° 93° 96° 91° 92° 89–96°
1d · 2026-08-27 90° 92° 90° 91° 98° 92° 93° 90–98°
0d · 2026-08-28 89° 94° 90° 92° 97° 92° 92° 89–97°
actual 92°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ORL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.