Was the forecast right for Orlando on Thu Aug 27?
Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ORL observations
8 days out, 5 models put Orlando's Thu Aug 27 high anywhere from 32° to 36°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 33°. The day verified at 33° against the ORL observations, with 36.1 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIFS ran 6° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-08-19 | 33° | 34° | 32° | 33° | 36° | — | — | 32–36° |
| 7d · 2026-08-20 | 32° | 34° | 34° | 33° | 36° | — | — | 32–36° |
| 6d · 2026-08-21 | 32° | 34° | 33° | 34° | 36° | 34° | 32° | 32–36° |
| 5d · 2026-08-22 | 32° | 34° | 33° | 35° | 36° | 32° | 31° | 31–36° |
| 4d · 2026-08-23 | 32° | 34° | 33° | 36° | 36° | 33° | 35° | 32–36° |
| 3d · 2026-08-24 | 31° | 34° | 32° | 35° | 36° | 32° | 31° | 31–36° |
| 2d · 2026-08-25 | 32° | 34° | 32° | 30° | 36° | 32° | 33° | 30–36° |
| 1d · 2026-08-26 | 32° | 34° | 31° | 33° | 36° | 32° | 33° | 31–36° |
| 0d · 2026-08-27 | 28° | 34° | 29° | 32° | 35° | 33° | 33° | 28–35° |
| actual | 33° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ORL observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.