The Spread

Was the forecast right for Orlando on Sat Aug 15?

Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

14 days out, 4 models put Orlando's Sat Aug 15 high anywhere from 32° to 37°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 35°. The ECMWF IFS analysis says the day verified at 36° with 0.5 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

UKMO landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIFS ran 3° cold.

14 days out the models said 32–37; it hit 36. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); AIFS ran 3°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 15 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-07-31 — 36° — — 36° — — 36–36°
14d · 2026-08-01 33° 37° 32° — 37° — — 32–37°
13d · 2026-08-02 33° 35° 32° — 39° — — 32–39°
12d · 2026-08-03 33° 36° 27° — 37° — — 27–37°
11d · 2026-08-04 32° 36° 29° — 37° — — 29–37°
10d · 2026-08-05 34° 36° 34° — 38° — — 34–38°
9d · 2026-08-06 33° 36° 33° 35° 37° — — 33–37°
8d · 2026-08-07 34° 36° 33° 34° 36° — — 33–36°
7d · 2026-08-08 33° 36° 33° 34° 39° — — 33–39°
6d · 2026-08-09 33° 35° 34° 35° 37° 36° 35° 33–37°
5d · 2026-08-10 33° 35° 33° 35° 36° 37° 36° 33–37°
4d · 2026-08-11 34° 35° 33° 34° 37° 37° 34° 33–37°
3d · 2026-08-12 34° 35° 34° 36° 39° 36° 37° 34–39°
2d · 2026-08-13 34° 35° 33° 36° 37° 36° 37° 33–37°
1d · 2026-08-14 34° 35° 33° 33° 35° 36° 36° 33–36°
0d · 2026-08-15 33° 36° 34° 35° 37° 35° 36° 33–37°
actual 36°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.