The Spread

Was the forecast right for Orlando on Fri Aug 14?

Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis

14 days out, 4 models put Orlando's Fri Aug 14 high anywhere from 30° to 38°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 35°. The ECMWF IFS analysis says the day verified at 32° with 1.0 mm of precipitation — drizzle.

ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.2°. GFS ran 5° hot.

14 days out the models said 30–38; it hit 32. ECMWF led (off 0.2°C); GFS ran 5°C hot.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 14 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
15d · 2026-07-30 — 33° — — 38° — — 33–38°
14d · 2026-07-31 30° 38° 32° — 38° — — 30–38°
13d · 2026-08-01 33° 37° 32° — 36° — — 32–37°
12d · 2026-08-02 33° 34° 32° — 37° — — 32–37°
11d · 2026-08-03 33° 36° 29° — 36° — — 29–36°
10d · 2026-08-04 32° 36° 33° — 36° — — 32–36°
9d · 2026-08-05 33° 36° 33° 34° 38° — — 33–38°
8d · 2026-08-06 33° 36° 33° 35° 38° — — 33–38°
7d · 2026-08-07 33° 36° 33° 34° 38° — — 33–38°
6d · 2026-08-08 33° 36° 33° 35° 38° 36° 35° 33–38°
5d · 2026-08-09 32° 35° 33° 34° 37° 35° 34° 32–37°
4d · 2026-08-10 33° 35° 32° 36° 37° 34° 36° 32–37°
3d · 2026-08-11 34° 35° 32° 34° 37° 35° 34° 32–37°
2d · 2026-08-12 33° 35° 32° 34° 38° 35° 36° 32–38°
1d · 2026-08-13 33° 36° 32° 35° 35° 35° 37° 32–37°
0d · 2026-08-14 34° 36° 32° 35° 37° 35° 35° 32–37°
actual 32°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.