Was the forecast right for Orlando on Thu Aug 13?
Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
14 days out, 4 models put Orlando's Thu Aug 13 high anywhere from 85° to 101°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 95°. ERA5 says the day verified at 89° with 0.06 in of precipitation — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.1°. GFS ran 9° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 13 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-29 | — | 96° | — | — | 90° | — | — | 90–96° |
| 14d · 2026-07-30 | 85° | 95° | 89° | — | 101° | — | — | 85–101° |
| 13d · 2026-07-31 | 87° | 99° | 89° | — | 101° | — | — | 87–101° |
| 12d · 2026-08-01 | 91° | 98° | 88° | — | 95° | — | — | 88–98° |
| 11d · 2026-08-02 | 92° | 97° | 90° | — | 100° | — | — | 90–100° |
| 10d · 2026-08-03 | 91° | 97° | 90° | — | 99° | — | — | 90–99° |
| 9d · 2026-08-04 | 91° | 97° | 90° | 93° | 98° | — | — | 90–98° |
| 8d · 2026-08-05 | 91° | 97° | 90° | 93° | 99° | — | — | 90–99° |
| 7d · 2026-08-06 | 91° | 97° | 90° | 95° | 100° | — | — | 90–100° |
| 6d · 2026-08-07 | 92° | 97° | 91° | 92° | 100° | 97° | 96° | 91–100° |
| 5d · 2026-08-08 | 91° | 97° | 92° | 91° | 100° | 96° | 98° | 91–100° |
| 4d · 2026-08-09 | 91° | 96° | 90° | 94° | 100° | 96° | 98° | 90–100° |
| 3d · 2026-08-10 | 92° | 94° | 89° | 99° | 100° | 94° | 97° | 89–100° |
| 2d · 2026-08-11 | 93° | 93° | 90° | 99° | 98° | 94° | 97° | 90–99° |
| 1d · 2026-08-12 | 92° | 94° | 89° | 93° | 93° | 91° | 96° | 89–96° |
| 0d · 2026-08-13 | 89° | 95° | 89° | 96° | 98° | 93° | 95° | 89–98° |
| actual | 89° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.