Was the forecast right for Orlando on Thu Aug 6?
Orlando, Florida · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
14 days out, 4 models put Orlando's Thu Aug 6 high anywhere from 89° to 98°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 89°. ERA5 says the day verified at 84° with 0.93 in of precipitation — rain.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. GFS ran 7° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 6 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Orlando scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-22 | — | 86° | — | — | 98° | — | — | 86–98° |
| 14d · 2026-07-23 | 90° | 92° | 89° | — | 98° | — | — | 89–98° |
| 13d · 2026-07-24 | 92° | 84° | 89° | — | 102° | — | — | 84–102° |
| 12d · 2026-07-25 | 91° | 90° | 88° | — | 99° | — | — | 88–99° |
| 11d · 2026-07-26 | 93° | 93° | 89° | — | 94° | — | — | 89–94° |
| 10d · 2026-07-27 | 92° | 96° | 87° | — | 101° | — | — | 87–101° |
| 9d · 2026-07-28 | 85° | 93° | 88° | 91° | 98° | — | — | 85–98° |
| 8d · 2026-07-29 | 88° | 93° | 89° | 92° | 96° | — | — | 88–96° |
| 7d · 2026-07-30 | 86° | 92° | 82° | 91° | 96° | — | — | 82–96° |
| 6d · 2026-07-31 | 86° | 92° | 81° | 90° | 96° | 90° | 89° | 81–96° |
| 5d · 2026-08-01 | 85° | 91° | 85° | 92° | 95° | 89° | 90° | 85–95° |
| 4d · 2026-08-02 | 86° | 89° | 84° | 92° | 97° | 91° | 85° | 84–97° |
| 3d · 2026-08-03 | 85° | 89° | 83° | 89° | 97° | 87° | 85° | 83–97° |
| 2d · 2026-08-04 | 85° | 89° | 87° | 88° | 97° | 88° | 88° | 85–97° |
| 1d · 2026-08-05 | 85° | 89° | 84° | 89° | 89° | 86° | 89° | 84–89° |
| 0d · 2026-08-06 | 85° | 89° | 86° | 90° | 92° | 83° | 89° | 83–92° |
| actual | 84° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Orlando — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.