Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Fri Aug 28?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
9 days out, 5 models put Oklahoma City's Fri Aug 28 high anywhere from 88° to 114°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 99°. The day verified at 100° against the OKC observations — partly cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.3°. GEM ran 2° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9d · 2026-08-19 | 92° | 102° | 88° | 94° | 114° | — | — | 88–114° |
| 8d · 2026-08-20 | 90° | 100° | 98° | 83° | 111° | — | — | 83–111° |
| 7d · 2026-08-21 | 95° | 98° | 99° | 100° | 108° | — | — | 95–108° |
| 6d · 2026-08-22 | 91° | 95° | 92° | 92° | 101° | 93° | 101° | 91–101° |
| 5d · 2026-08-23 | 96° | 94° | 97° | 97° | 107° | 91° | 95° | 91–107° |
| 4d · 2026-08-24 | 97° | 94° | 97° | 94° | 105° | 90° | 95° | 90–105° |
| 3d · 2026-08-25 | 97° | 95° | 96° | 96° | 103° | 93° | 98° | 93–103° |
| 2d · 2026-08-26 | 96° | 97° | 96° | 94° | 103° | 95° | 98° | 94–103° |
| 1d · 2026-08-27 | 97° | 96° | 96° | 96° | 103° | 96° | 99° | 96–103° |
| 0d · 2026-08-28 | 99° | 98° | 98° | 98° | 101° | 99° | 100° | 98–101° |
| actual | 100° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.