The Spread

Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Fri Aug 28?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations

9 days out, 5 models put Oklahoma City's Fri Aug 28 high anywhere from 31° to 45°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 37°. The day verified at 38° against the OKC observations — partly cloudy.

UKMO landed closest, off by 0.2°. GEM ran 1° cold.

9 days out the models said 31–45; it hit 38. UKMO led (off 0.2°C); GEM ran 1°C cold.
The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Fri Aug 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead AIFSAIGFSECMWFGEMGFSICONUKMO Range
9d · 2026-08-19 33° 39° 31° 34° 45° — — 31–45°
8d · 2026-08-20 32° 38° 37° 29° 44° — — 29–44°
7d · 2026-08-21 35° 36° 37° 38° 42° — — 35–42°
6d · 2026-08-22 33° 35° 33° 33° 38° 34° 38° 33–38°
5d · 2026-08-23 35° 34° 36° 36° 42° 33° 35° 33–42°
4d · 2026-08-24 36° 34° 36° 35° 40° 32° 35° 32–40°
3d · 2026-08-25 36° 35° 36° 35° 40° 34° 37° 34–40°
2d · 2026-08-26 35° 36° 36° 34° 39° 35° 36° 34–39°
1d · 2026-08-27 36° 36° 36° 36° 39° 35° 37° 35–39°
0d · 2026-08-28 37° 37° 37° 36° 38° 37° 38° 36–38°
actual 38°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.