Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Tue Aug 25?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations
6 days out, 7 models put Oklahoma City's Tue Aug 25 high anywhere from 97° to 110°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 101°. The day verified at 104° against the OKC observations — drizzle.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.5°. AIFS ran 7° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 6d · 2026-08-19 | 98° | 101° | 97° | 106° | 110° | 100° | 100° | 97–110° |
| 5d · 2026-08-20 | 99° | 103° | 102° | 104° | 108° | 102° | 107° | 99–108° |
| 4d · 2026-08-21 | 98° | 102° | 99° | 106° | 105° | 101° | 96° | 96–106° |
| 3d · 2026-08-22 | 96° | 99° | 100° | 101° | 108° | 94° | 91° | 91–108° |
| 2d · 2026-08-23 | 99° | 99° | 100° | 103° | 107° | 96° | 101° | 96–107° |
| 1d · 2026-08-24 | 96° | 101° | 100° | 104° | 108° | 103° | 98° | 96–108° |
| 0d · 2026-08-25 | 97° | 101° | 101° | 104° | 105° | 102° | 101° | 97–105° |
| actual | 104° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.