Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Tue Aug 25?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the OKC observations

6 days out, 7 models put Oklahoma City's Tue Aug 25 high anywhere from 36° to 43°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 38°. The day verified at 40° against the OKC observations — drizzle.

GEM landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIFS ran 4° cold.

6 days out the models said 36–43; it hit 40. GEM led (off 0.3°C); AIFS ran 4°C cold. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
6d · 2026-08-19	37°	38°	36°	41°	43°	38°	38°	36–43°
5d · 2026-08-20	37°	39°	39°	40°	42°	39°	42°	37–42°
4d · 2026-08-21	37°	39°	37°	41°	40°	38°	36°	36–41°
3d · 2026-08-22	36°	37°	38°	38°	42°	35°	33°	33–42°
2d · 2026-08-23	37°	37°	38°	40°	42°	35°	38°	35–42°
1d · 2026-08-24	36°	38°	38°	40°	42°	40°	36°	36–42°
0d · 2026-08-25	36°	38°	38°	40°	40°	39°	38°	36–40°
actual								40°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the OKC observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.