Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Wed Aug 5?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
14 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Wed Aug 5 high anywhere from 95° to 101°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 102°. ERA5 says the day verified at 101° — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.7°. UKMO ran 3° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-07-21 | — | 94° | — | — | 107° | — | — | 94–107° |
| 14d · 2026-07-22 | 100° | 95° | 100° | — | 101° | — | — | 95–101° |
| 13d · 2026-07-23 | 101° | 82° | 93° | — | 100° | — | — | 82–101° |
| 12d · 2026-07-24 | 86° | 94° | 82° | — | 112° | — | — | 82–112° |
| 11d · 2026-07-25 | 87° | 91° | 100° | — | 110° | — | — | 87–110° |
| 10d · 2026-07-26 | 92° | 95° | 103° | — | 104° | — | — | 92–104° |
| 9d · 2026-07-27 | 93° | 96° | 102° | 98° | 99° | — | — | 93–102° |
| 8d · 2026-07-28 | 95° | 101° | 102° | 99° | 103° | — | — | 95–103° |
| 7d · 2026-07-29 | 99° | 101° | 105° | 100° | 109° | — | — | 99–109° |
| 6d · 2026-07-30 | 100° | 100° | 106° | 102° | 112° | 91° | 106° | 91–112° |
| 5d · 2026-07-31 | 100° | 101° | 107° | 104° | 111° | 104° | 105° | 100–111° |
| 4d · 2026-08-01 | 100° | 101° | 105° | 101° | 111° | 103° | 101° | 100–111° |
| 3d · 2026-08-02 | 100° | 101° | 103° | 102° | 111° | 103° | 101° | 100–111° |
| 2d · 2026-08-03 | 100° | 103° | 102° | 102° | 109° | 104° | 101° | 100–109° |
| 1d · 2026-08-04 | 100° | 103° | 102° | 102° | 102° | 103° | 102° | 100–103° |
| 0d · 2026-08-05 | 102° | 102° | 101° | 102° | 102° | 103° | 103° | 101–103° |
| actual | 101° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.