Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Tue Jul 28?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
11 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Tue Jul 28 high anywhere from 93° to 115°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 102°. ERA5 says the day verified at 103° — cloudy.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.2°. AIFS ran 3° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Jul 28 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 11d · 2026-07-17 | 102° | 93° | 108° | — | 115° | — | — | 93–115° |
| 10d · 2026-07-18 | 92° | 101° | 104° | — | 116° | — | — | 92–116° |
| 9d · 2026-07-19 | 103° | 96° | 101° | 102° | 105° | — | — | 96–105° |
| 8d · 2026-07-20 | 103° | 100° | 106° | 105° | 115° | — | — | 100–115° |
| 7d · 2026-07-21 | 105° | 101° | 106° | 104° | 110° | — | — | 101–110° |
| 6d · 2026-07-22 | 105° | 100° | 108° | 106° | 109° | 107° | 106° | 100–109° |
| 5d · 2026-07-23 | 103° | 100° | 108° | 105° | 108° | 106° | 108° | 100–108° |
| 4d · 2026-07-24 | 102° | 98° | 108° | 105° | 112° | 104° | 107° | 98–112° |
| 3d · 2026-07-25 | 101° | 100° | 107° | 103° | 111° | 102° | 104° | 100–111° |
| 2d · 2026-07-26 | 101° | 101° | 106° | 102° | 109° | 103° | 105° | 101–109° |
| 1d · 2026-07-27 | 100° | 103° | 104° | 103° | 104° | 103° | 105° | 100–105° |
| 0d · 2026-07-28 | 100° | 103° | 102° | 101° | 102° | 101° | 103° | 100–103° |
| actual | 103° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.