Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Mon Jul 27?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
10 days out, 4 models put Oklahoma City's Mon Jul 27 high anywhere from 88° to 111°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 102°. ERA5 says the day verified at 102° — cloudy.
GEM landed closest, off by 0.1°. UKMO ran 2° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Jul 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 10d · 2026-07-17 | 104° | 88° | 107° | — | 111° | — | — | 88–111° |
| 9d · 2026-07-18 | 104° | 103° | 108° | 106° | 116° | — | — | 103–116° |
| 8d · 2026-07-19 | 102° | 95° | 108° | 101° | 114° | — | — | 95–114° |
| 7d · 2026-07-20 | 102° | 101° | 108° | 104° | 113° | — | — | 101–113° |
| 6d · 2026-07-21 | 103° | 99° | 105° | 103° | 108° | 107° | 104° | 99–108° |
| 5d · 2026-07-22 | 104° | 100° | 106° | 103° | 108° | 104° | 107° | 100–108° |
| 4d · 2026-07-23 | 104° | 99° | 106° | 103° | 108° | 106° | 106° | 99–108° |
| 3d · 2026-07-24 | 102° | 98° | 106° | 101° | 110° | 103° | 107° | 98–110° |
| 2d · 2026-07-25 | 102° | 99° | 105° | 101° | 110° | 100° | 104° | 99–110° |
| 1d · 2026-07-26 | 101° | 101° | 104° | 101° | 102° | 103° | 105° | 101–105° |
| 0d · 2026-07-27 | 101° | 103° | 101° | 102° | 102° | 102° | 104° | 101–104° |
| actual | 102° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.