Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Sat Jul 25?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
8 days out, 5 models put Oklahoma City's Sat Jul 25 high anywhere from 85° to 106°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 100°. ERA5 says the day verified at 100° — partly cloudy.
AIFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. UKMO ran 3° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Jul 25 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-07-17 | 103° | 85° | 106° | 102° | 104° | — | — | 85–106° |
| 7d · 2026-07-18 | 100° | 101° | 105° | 108° | 110° | — | — | 100–110° |
| 6d · 2026-07-19 | 97° | 84° | 106° | 94° | 98° | 100° | 98° | 84–106° |
| 5d · 2026-07-20 | 97° | 98° | 104° | 96° | 111° | 99° | 104° | 96–111° |
| 4d · 2026-07-21 | 100° | 98° | 101° | 98° | 109° | 96° | 99° | 96–109° |
| 3d · 2026-07-22 | 100° | 96° | 101° | 94° | 106° | 100° | 101° | 94–106° |
| 2d · 2026-07-23 | 100° | 96° | 100° | 98° | 106° | 101° | 102° | 96–106° |
| 1d · 2026-07-24 | 99° | 95° | 102° | 100° | 102° | 100° | 104° | 95–104° |
| 0d · 2026-07-25 | 100° | 100° | 100° | 101° | 101° | 99° | 102° | 99–102° |
| actual | 100° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.