Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Tue Jul 21?
Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
4 days out, 7 models put Oklahoma City's Tue Jul 21 high anywhere from 99° to 112°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 105°. ERA5 says the day verified at 107° — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.5°. AIGFS ran 4° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Jul 21 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d · 2026-07-17 | 104° | 99° | 104° | 102° | 112° | 105° | 101° | 99–112° |
| 3d · 2026-07-18 | 104° | 99° | 104° | 103° | 110° | 105° | 102° | 99–110° |
| 2d · 2026-07-19 | 106° | 99° | 105° | 103° | 108° | 105° | 103° | 99–108° |
| 1d · 2026-07-20 | 106° | 102° | 106° | 103° | 106° | 106° | 103° | 102–106° |
| 0d · 2026-07-21 | 105° | 103° | 107° | 105° | 104° | 106° | 103° | 103–107° |
| actual | 107° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.