Was the forecast right for Oklahoma City on Mon Jul 20?

Oklahoma City, Oklahoma · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5

3 days out, 7 models put Oklahoma City's Mon Jul 20 high anywhere from 95° to 105°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 99°. ERA5 says the day verified at 99° with 0.01 in of precipitation — drizzle.

GFS landed closest, off by 0.1°. AIFS ran 3° hot.

3 days out the models said 95–105; it hit 99. GFS led (off 0.1°); AIFS ran 3° hot. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Mon Jul 20 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Oklahoma City scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
3d · 2026-07-17	100°	95°	99°	97°	105°	98°	96°	95–105°
2d · 2026-07-18	100°	96°	98°	100°	103°	99°	96°	96–103°
1d · 2026-07-19	101°	96°	99°	98°	101°	100°	98°	96–101°
0d · 2026-07-20	102°	98°	99°	99°	99°	100°	99°	98–102°
actual								99°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Oklahoma City — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.