Was the forecast right for New Orleans on Thu Aug 27?
New Orleans, Louisiana · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NEW observations
5 days out, 7 models put New Orleans's Thu Aug 27 high anywhere from 82° to 97°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 84°. The day verified at 86° against the NEW observations, with 1.29 in of precipitation — thunderstorms.
ICON landed closest, off by 1.3°. GEM ran 6° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New Orleans scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d · 2026-08-22 | 83° | 92° | 82° | 97° | 82° | 88° | 92° | 82–97° |
| 4d · 2026-08-23 | 82° | 86° | 83° | 92° | 91° | 90° | 92° | 82–92° |
| 3d · 2026-08-24 | 84° | 90° | 85° | 91° | 89° | 85° | 92° | 84–92° |
| 2d · 2026-08-25 | 83° | 89° | 84° | 92° | 91° | 85° | 84° | 83–92° |
| 1d · 2026-08-26 | 82° | 88° | 86° | 83° | 84° | 84° | 86° | 82–88° |
| 0d · 2026-08-27 | 84° | 84° | 84° | 92° | 82° | 85° | 89° | 82–92° |
| actual | 86° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New Orleans — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NEW observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.