Was the forecast right for New Orleans on Thu Aug 27?
New Orleans, Louisiana · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NEW observations
5 days out, 7 models put New Orleans's Thu Aug 27 high anywhere from 28° to 36°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 29°. The day verified at 30° against the NEW observations, with 32.8 mm of precipitation — thunderstorms.
ICON landed closest, off by 0.7°. GEM ran 4° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 27 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New Orleans scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d · 2026-08-22 | 28° | 34° | 28° | 36° | 28° | 31° | 33° | 28–36° |
| 4d · 2026-08-23 | 28° | 30° | 29° | 33° | 33° | 32° | 34° | 28–34° |
| 3d · 2026-08-24 | 29° | 32° | 29° | 33° | 32° | 29° | 34° | 29–34° |
| 2d · 2026-08-25 | 28° | 31° | 29° | 33° | 33° | 29° | 29° | 28–33° |
| 1d · 2026-08-26 | 28° | 31° | 30° | 28° | 29° | 29° | 30° | 28–31° |
| 0d · 2026-08-27 | 29° | 29° | 29° | 34° | 28° | 29° | 32° | 28–34° |
| actual | 30° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New Orleans — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NEW observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.