Was the forecast right for New Orleans on Wed Aug 26?
New Orleans, Louisiana · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NEW observations
4 days out, 7 models put New Orleans's Wed Aug 26 high anywhere from 89° to 98°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 95°. The day verified at 92° against the NEW observations — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 1.4°. UKMO ran 4° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New Orleans scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d · 2026-08-22 | 89° | 97° | 89° | 94° | 94° | 89° | 98° | 89–98° |
| 3d · 2026-08-23 | 89° | 96° | 88° | 87° | 93° | 93° | 92° | 87–96° |
| 2d · 2026-08-24 | 90° | 95° | 92° | 95° | 93° | 92° | 96° | 90–96° |
| 1d · 2026-08-25 | 90° | 95° | 88° | 95° | 98° | 93° | 94° | 88–98° |
| 0d · 2026-08-26 | 90° | 95° | 91° | 96° | 95° | 94° | 96° | 90–96° |
| actual | 92° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New Orleans — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NEW observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.