Was the forecast right for New Orleans on Wed Aug 26?
New Orleans, Louisiana · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the NEW observations
4 days out, 7 models put New Orleans's Wed Aug 26 high anywhere from 32° to 36°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 35°. The day verified at 33° against the NEW observations — drizzle.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.8°. UKMO ran 2° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 26 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New Orleans scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 4d · 2026-08-22 | 32° | 36° | 32° | 35° | 34° | 32° | 36° | 32–36° |
| 3d · 2026-08-23 | 31° | 35° | 31° | 31° | 34° | 34° | 34° | 31–35° |
| 2d · 2026-08-24 | 32° | 35° | 33° | 35° | 34° | 33° | 35° | 32–35° |
| 1d · 2026-08-25 | 32° | 35° | 31° | 35° | 37° | 34° | 35° | 31–37° |
| 0d · 2026-08-26 | 32° | 35° | 33° | 36° | 35° | 34° | 36° | 32–36° |
| actual | 33° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New Orleans — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the NEW observations. Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.