Was the forecast right for New Orleans on Mon Aug 3?
New Orleans, Louisiana · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
7 days out, 5 models put New Orleans's Mon Aug 3 high anywhere from 85° to 93°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 89°. ERA5 says the day verified at 90° with 0.05 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.8°. AIFS ran 2° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Mon Aug 3 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New Orleans scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 7d · 2026-07-27 | 85° | 87° | 87° | 87° | 93° | — | — | 85–93° |
| 6d · 2026-07-28 | 87° | 93° | 87° | 87° | 96° | 86° | — | 86–96° |
| 5d · 2026-07-29 | 87° | 91° | 91° | 88° | 92° | 92° | 86° | 86–92° |
| 4d · 2026-07-30 | 88° | 92° | 89° | 88° | 97° | 90° | 92° | 88–97° |
| 3d · 2026-07-31 | 88° | 92° | 91° | 92° | 97° | 93° | 93° | 88–97° |
| 2d · 2026-08-01 | 89° | 92° | 92° | 94° | 97° | 91° | 94° | 89–97° |
| 1d · 2026-08-02 | 88° | 90° | 88° | 93° | 94° | 90° | 90° | 88–94° |
| 0d · 2026-08-03 | 88° | 89° | 89° | 91° | 91° | 88° | 91° | 88–91° |
| actual | 90° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New Orleans — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.