Was the forecast right for New Orleans on Thu Jul 30?

New Orleans, Louisiana · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5

3 days out, 7 models put New Orleans's Thu Jul 30 high anywhere from 89° to 100°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 95°. ERA5 says the day verified at 95° with 0.02 in of precipitation — drizzle.

AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.3°. AIFS ran 4° cold.

3 days out the models said 89–100; it hit 95. AIGFS led (off 0.3°); AIFS ran 4° cold. — The shareable card for this receipt — what this page looks like pasted into a thread.

What every model said, at every lead

Daily-high calls for Thu Jul 30 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the New Orleans scoreboard shows them, labelled.

Lead	AIFS	AIGFS	ECMWF	GEM	GFS	ICON	UKMO	Range
3d · 2026-07-27	89°	89°	90°	93°	100°	92°	92°	89–100°
2d · 2026-07-28	91°	96°	92°	95°	97°	92°	91°	91–97°
1d · 2026-07-29	91°	96°	92°	96°	96°	95°	96°	91–96°
0d · 2026-07-30	91°	95°	93°	96°	98°	93°	96°	91–98°
actual								95°

Read it honestly

This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in New Orleans — or every city The Spread scores.

Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.