Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Thu Aug 20?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °F · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
13 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Thu Aug 20 high anywhere from 83° to 97°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 83°. The day verified at 81° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 0.05 in of precipitation — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.7°. UKMO ran 3° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 20 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-05 | — | 80° | — | — | 86° | — | — | 80–86° |
| 14d · 2026-08-06 | 78° | 75° | — | — | 85° | — | — | 75–85° |
| 13d · 2026-08-07 | 85° | 83° | 89° | — | 97° | — | — | 83–97° |
| 12d · 2026-08-08 | 78° | 93° | 68° | — | 76° | — | — | 68–93° |
| 11d · 2026-08-09 | 81° | 73° | 88° | — | 87° | — | — | 73–88° |
| 10d · 2026-08-10 | 88° | 69° | 69° | — | 82° | — | — | 69–88° |
| 9d · 2026-08-11 | 82° | 80° | 87° | — | 90° | — | — | 80–90° |
| 8d · 2026-08-12 | 80° | 73° | 87° | 75° | 83° | — | — | 73–87° |
| 7d · 2026-08-13 | 74° | 76° | 83° | 73° | 87° | — | — | 73–87° |
| 6d · 2026-08-14 | 73° | 75° | 75° | 77° | 83° | 77° | — | 73–83° |
| 5d · 2026-08-15 | 80° | 74° | 83° | 74° | 86° | 81° | 83° | 74–86° |
| 4d · 2026-08-16 | 85° | 82° | 83° | 79° | 88° | 82° | 83° | 79–88° |
| 3d · 2026-08-17 | 84° | 82° | 83° | 78° | 88° | 82° | 86° | 78–88° |
| 2d · 2026-08-18 | 82° | 82° | 83° | 82° | 91° | 82° | 80° | 80–91° |
| 1d · 2026-08-19 | 79° | 80° | 86° | 84° | 88° | 85° | 83° | 79–88° |
| 0d · 2026-08-20 | 80° | 82° | 83° | 84° | 84° | 83° | 84° | 80–84° |
| actual | 81° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.