Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Thu Aug 20?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature in °C · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against the ECMWF IFS analysis
13 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Thu Aug 20 high anywhere from 28° to 36°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 28°. The day verified at 27° against the ECMWF IFS analysis, with 1.3 mm of precipitation — drizzle.
AIGFS landed closest, off by 0.4°. UKMO ran 2° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Thu Aug 20 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 15d · 2026-08-05 | — | 26° | — | — | 30° | — | — | 26–30° |
| 14d · 2026-08-06 | 26° | 24° | — | — | 29° | — | — | 24–29° |
| 13d · 2026-08-07 | 29° | 28° | 32° | — | 36° | — | — | 28–36° |
| 12d · 2026-08-08 | 26° | 34° | 20° | — | 25° | — | — | 20–34° |
| 11d · 2026-08-09 | 27° | 23° | 31° | — | 31° | — | — | 23–31° |
| 10d · 2026-08-10 | 31° | 21° | 20° | — | 28° | — | — | 20–31° |
| 9d · 2026-08-11 | 28° | 27° | 30° | — | 32° | — | — | 27–32° |
| 8d · 2026-08-12 | 27° | 23° | 30° | 24° | 29° | — | — | 23–30° |
| 7d · 2026-08-13 | 23° | 24° | 28° | 23° | 31° | — | — | 23–31° |
| 6d · 2026-08-14 | 23° | 24° | 24° | 25° | 28° | 25° | — | 23–28° |
| 5d · 2026-08-15 | 27° | 23° | 28° | 23° | 30° | 27° | 28° | 23–30° |
| 4d · 2026-08-16 | 29° | 28° | 28° | 26° | 31° | 28° | 28° | 26–31° |
| 3d · 2026-08-17 | 29° | 28° | 28° | 26° | 31° | 28° | 30° | 26–31° |
| 2d · 2026-08-18 | 28° | 28° | 28° | 28° | 33° | 28° | 27° | 27–33° |
| 1d · 2026-08-19 | 26° | 27° | 30° | 29° | 31° | 29° | 28° | 26–31° |
| 0d · 2026-08-20 | 27° | 28° | 28° | 29° | 29° | 28° | 29° | 27–29° |
| actual | 27° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is the ECMWF IFS analysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.