Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Wed Aug 5?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
9 days out, 4 models put Minneapolis's Wed Aug 5 high anywhere from 80° to 84°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 81°. ERA5 says the day verified at 82° — partly cloudy.
UKMO landed closest, off by 0.7°.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Wed Aug 5 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 9d · 2026-07-27 | 84° | 81° | 83° | — | 80° | — | — | 80–84° |
| 8d · 2026-07-28 | 80° | 81° | 77° | 77° | 94° | — | — | 77–94° |
| 7d · 2026-07-29 | 82° | 70° | 81° | 77° | 90° | — | — | 70–90° |
| 6d · 2026-07-30 | 77° | 73° | 80° | 67° | 80° | 79° | — | 67–80° |
| 5d · 2026-07-31 | 77° | 74° | 80° | 75° | 85° | 76° | 78° | 74–85° |
| 4d · 2026-08-01 | 77° | 77° | 80° | 75° | 82° | 78° | 78° | 75–82° |
| 3d · 2026-08-02 | 78° | 77° | 81° | 77° | 88° | 82° | 78° | 77–88° |
| 2d · 2026-08-03 | 79° | 77° | 80° | 79° | 86° | 80° | 77° | 77–86° |
| 1d · 2026-08-04 | 80° | 77° | 82° | 83° | 81° | 79° | 80° | 77–83° |
| 0d · 2026-08-05 | 80° | 80° | 81° | 83° | 82° | 80° | 81° | 80–83° |
| actual | 82° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.