Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Tue Aug 4?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
8 days out, 5 models put Minneapolis's Tue Aug 4 high anywhere from 77° to 94°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 78°. ERA5 says the day verified at 77° with 0.03 in of precipitation — drizzle.
UKMO landed closest, off by 1.0°. ICON ran 2° cold.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Tue Aug 4 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 8d · 2026-07-27 | 83° | 81° | 87° | 77° | 94° | — | — | 77–94° |
| 7d · 2026-07-28 | 82° | 84° | 83° | 78° | 94° | — | — | 78–94° |
| 6d · 2026-07-29 | 78° | 72° | 82° | 85° | 96° | 86° | — | 72–96° |
| 5d · 2026-07-30 | 76° | 79° | 84° | 78° | 77° | 79° | 81° | 76–84° |
| 4d · 2026-07-31 | 75° | 69° | 84° | 76° | 80° | 79° | 80° | 69–84° |
| 3d · 2026-08-01 | 75° | 74° | 82° | 76° | 78° | 77° | 78° | 74–82° |
| 2d · 2026-08-02 | 76° | 75° | 80° | 79° | 86° | 79° | 78° | 75–86° |
| 1d · 2026-08-03 | 75° | 75° | 76° | 82° | 75° | 75° | 79° | 75–82° |
| 0d · 2026-08-04 | 76° | 75° | 78° | 79° | 78° | 75° | 78° | 75–79° |
| actual | 77° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.