Was the forecast right for Minneapolis on Sat Aug 1?
Minneapolis, Minnesota · daily high temperature · forecasts from each model's archived runs, verified against ERA5
5 days out, 7 models put Minneapolis's Sat Aug 1 high anywhere from 83° to 98°; by the final call the field had settled to a median of 84°. ERA5 says the day verified at 83° — cloudy.
ECMWF landed closest, off by 0.7°. GEM ran 5° hot.
What every model said, at every lead
Daily-high calls for Sat Aug 1 as each model's runs approached it — the last archived run per day. NBM and The Spread's own blend are consensus products and stay out of these ranges and rankings; the Minneapolis scoreboard shows them, labelled.
| Lead | AIFS | AIGFS | ECMWF | GEM | GFS | ICON | UKMO | Range |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 5d · 2026-07-27 | 84° | 86° | 86° | 83° | 98° | 86° | 84° | 83–98° |
| 4d · 2026-07-28 | 84° | 82° | 82° | 85° | 88° | 91° | 83° | 82–91° |
| 3d · 2026-07-29 | 84° | 80° | 83° | 86° | 94° | 85° | 84° | 80–94° |
| 2d · 2026-07-30 | 84° | 79° | 83° | 86° | 87° | 85° | 84° | 79–87° |
| 1d · 2026-07-31 | 84° | 80° | 82° | 88° | 86° | 86° | 84° | 80–88° |
| 0d · 2026-08-01 | 84° | 82° | 82° | 88° | 84° | 85° | 85° | 82–88° |
| actual | 83° |
Read it honestly
This is one date, not a league table. A model can win a day it deserved to lose; rankings only mean something over a window. For that, see which model has been most accurate in Minneapolis — or every city The Spread scores.
Forecasts are what each model's archived runs said at the time, captured at The Spread's sweep times — never reconstructed after the fact. Truth is ERA5 reanalysis (temperature_2m_max). Archive depth varies by city; receipts exist only for dates the archive watched arrive.